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Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Big Favorites Over Struggling Broncos on TNF
Updated October 11, 2023
What: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs – NFL Week 6
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
When: Thursday, October 12th, 8:15 PM ET
The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs will go to battle on primetime on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 action as both teams trend in completely opposite directions. The kick-off is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. KC has run off four wins in a row since their season opener and just beat Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. As for Denver, they lost a close one to the New York Jets, falling to 1-4. Continue reading for the Broncos vs Chiefs picks.
By no surprise, the Chiefs are a big favorite with moneyline odds of -600. The Broncos come back at +460. KC is also laying 10.5 points on the spread while the total in points is set at 47.5. These two teams are in the same division and typically face off quite often. As you can imagine, the Chiefs are dominant in this matchup, winning 15 straight dating back to 2015. They’ve failed to cover in the last three meetings, though.
Denver in Shambles
A lot of people around the league believed the arrival of Sean Payton as the Broncos’ new head coach would do wonders for this organization. Needless to say, it hasn’t. While the offense isn’t totally awful with 24.2 points per game, the Denver defense ranks towards the bottom of the league in a number of categories. It’s a clear issue.
Russell Wilson is by no means who he once was. But he’s sure looked a lot better than in 2022. The former Seahawks QB has completed 67% of his passes for 1,210 yards and 11 touchdowns while only throwing two interceptions. It is definitely an improvement from his debut campaign in the Mile High City. However, Russ made some costly mistakes last weekend against the Jets, fumbling the ball twice with one of them being returned for a touchdown that ultimately decided the game in the fourth quarter. That was crucial.
The upcoming schedule isn’t going to get any easier for the Broncos, either. After they visit the Chiefs, the Green Bay Packers are up next at home before hosting KC in Week 8. Wilson’s play has been decent but he needs to limit the mishaps. And when it comes to defense, Denver must clean it up. If they’re poor again on Thursday, Patrick Mahomes is truly going to pick them apart.
Chiefs Are Rolling
Surprise surprise. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL. What’s new? Despite losing in Week 1 to the Detroit Lions at home, Mahomes and Co. have buckled down and dominated, beating the Jaguars, Bears, Jets, and Vikings since. Sure, they haven’t scored a ton of points, but Mahomes is stepping up when it matters, and the defense, with the return of Chris Jones, is flourishing. They’re allowing only 16 points per contest, which ranks fifth in the league.
On the offensive end, Andy Reid’s team is top-10 in every notable category and sits as the top dog in third down conversation % at 51.5. Kansas City is also scoring 25.6 points per game. Mahomes’ numbers aren’t jumping off the page, but they’re still respectable. He’s throwing for 1,287 yards, including 10 TDs and four picks. The interception rate isn’t like usual for the reigning MVP, but he did clean it up in the victory over Minnesota.
Mahomes was 31 for 41 for 281 yards and two passing touchdowns. Although the Chiefs run game wasn’t great, Travis Kelce was brilliant out wide, reeling in 10 catches for 67 yards. The tight end did injure his ankle, but he’s expected to suit up on TNF. Kansas City’s best offensive game came against the Bears, where they put up 41 points, and you’ll probably see a similar result on Thursday, considering just how atrocious the Broncos’ defense is.
Broncos vs Chiefs Picks
I have zero doubts the Chiefs will cruise here, and while their cover rate against Denver isn’t great in the last two years, Kansas City is going to blow the Broncos out. Take the spread.