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Bills Favored Over Surging Dolphins in Week 4
Updated September 28, 2023
What: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills – NFL Week 4
Where: Bills Stadium
When: Sunday, October 1st, 1 PM ET
AFC East action will take center stage in Week 4 on Sunday as the unbeaten Miami Dolphins head to New York to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a divisional matchup. The kick-off is scheduled for 1 PM ET at Bills Stadium. Miami is coming off a ridiculous win, wiping the floor with the Denver Broncos by a score of 70-20. It was the most points in an NFL game since 1966. Buffalo also secured a convincing victory, taking down the Washington Commanders 37-3. This should be a very entertaining clash between two legitimate contenders. Continue reading for the Dolphins vs Bills picks.
The Bills are the favorite here, with -155 moneyline odds for an implied win probability of 60.78%. The Dolphins come back at +135 and have a 42.55% chance of taking this one. Buffalo is also laying 2.5 points, while the total is set at 54. The Bills have won nine of the last ten against their AFC East foes.
Dolphins Off to a Flying Start
Miami is just one of three unbeaten teams heading into Week 4, joining the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers. First, it was a pair of wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots before erupting in Week 3 against the winless Broncos. This was the definition of a beatdown, with Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense going off. For Denver fans, it was a nightmare.
Putting up 70 points is a very tall task, and Miami did it. They had a total of 30 downs and a whopping 726 yards to just 363 for Russell Wilson and Co. Most of the damage actually came on the ground, with rookie running back De’Von Achane having the game of his life. The former Texas A&M standout rushed for 11.3 yards per carry for a total of 203 yards and four touchdowns. Two on the ground and two in the air.
Tagovailoa meanwhile completed 23 of 26 passes for 209 yards and four passing TDs. After an injury-riddled 2022, Tua hasn’t missed a beat so far. He looks very solid. Oh, and the Dolphins didn’t even have Jaylen Waddle, who was sidelined due to injury. Tyreek Hill ate up most of the production downfield, reeling in nine catches for 157 yards and a touchdown.
Waddle is expected to play in Week 4, which means Miami’s lethal WR duo is back intact. That’s a scary sight for the stout Bills passing defense. The Dolphins know that Buffalo is capable of stopping them, but you also cannot ignore how impressive the offense has looked. They rank first in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and points.
Bills Playing Like Themselves Again
After the New York Jets lost Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending Achilles injury in the first quarter of Week 1 against the Bills, everyone expected Buffalo to run away with that game. Instead, they ended up losing in overtime. Well, the defeat was evidently a wake-up call for the Bills, who have come out the last two weeks and absolutely thrived on both sides of the ball.
Sean McDermott’s squad first beat the Raiders 38-10 in Week 2 before the 37-3 victory in DC. While neither offense is exactly great, allowing a combined 17 points in two contests is something to take note of. Josh Allen completed 20 of 32 passes for 218 yards, one touchdown, and an interception while also rushing for 46 yards on three carries, including a score. Stefon Diggs led the charge out wide, collecting eight receptions for 111 yards. The run game really stood out against the Commanders, as James Cook ran for 6.5 yards per carry on 15 rushes. Washington couldn’t stop him.
Regardless of their recent success, the Bills know Sunday is the biggest test yet. The Dolphins are confident as can be and will be motivated to roll into Buffalo and snatch a win. Their second-ranked defense will have their hands full with Hill and Waddle, while Achane is clearly feeling himself right now. Slowing down the best offense in the NFL is going to be the key to winning this one. We know Allen and Co. will produce points.
Dolphins vs Bills Picks
History may be on Buffalo’s side, but the Dolphins honestly look like a team that could win the Super Bowl right now. I have confidence in hammering that Miami moneyline. They will move to 4-0 on the year.