Prediction markets have been heavily involved on several fronts lately. The NBA Finals started and so has the Stanley Cup Final. However, what about the politics? Yes, the Governor primary and Mayor of Los Angeles primary took place on June 2nd. Ballots will eventually decide the two candidates that will battle it out for the top spot. Polls became its own story and the realty is other stories have emerged.
Honestly, it seems that California bettors will only become more interested in the prediction markets. One of the stark realities that online betting sites have not accepted in 2028 is this. Now, the problems keep mounting for legislators, tribes, and proponents of sports betting in “the Golden State”. While a few pending measures are on the table, prediction markets appear here to stay in the state of California.
One really useful construct of the prediction markets is that they have provided a useful measure err political insight. Remember that predictions are based on real life events. Are the voters ahead of the polls or is it a mix of Column A and Column B? That again depends on who you ask.
Both races do bless bettors with a wide array of candidates. Alas, California is like trying to make sense of the insanity. The difference with prediction markets is one can ditch a wager and sell it off to someone else. With betting, the bet is all yours from beginning to end. Think of that as for better or for worse.
Prediction markets have enjoyed a grey area but provide some interest when it comes to an election cycle. Does anyone trust polls or the voting process in California anymore? Yes, the Las Vegas odds shifted quite a bit between a few months ago and now when it comes to the race for Governor.
The first key with the prediction markets is this. Steve Hilton is believed to be a relatively clear favorite if you trust the numbers from the polls. So far, that has kind of played out. The problem is this. California counts votes at a pace that rivals snails and slugs. As of press time, around 56% of the votes have been counted so far. Since mail-in ballots can be approved, if they are postmarked on or before Election Day, until June 9th, we could be here awhile.
As for other action, there are still bets on who Gavin Newsom will ultimately endorse. Katie Porter appears to be stealing the vote of Tom Styer just enough to allow Xavier Becerra to get in the runoff with Steve Hilton. Predictions have been pretty consistent here. Expect the volume of betting to jump from the $14-15 million as the General Election in November draws closer.
When it comes to the prediction markets in California, things seem to dish out their own spice. Just because some national elections are accurate predictors does not a prediction market make. Despite some shortcomings, the biggest problems are more self inflicted in the state of California. On the bright side, prediction markets did get the General Election candidates correct (so far).
If anyone needs a reason why prediction markets and the Los Angeles Mayor primary will drive you nuts, it is this. Well, California has a three-way race here where a significant number of residents clearly will not go near a prediction market. Imagine March Madness without the NCAA Basketball betting like appeal. Think of the dilemma voters have here.
Had legal sports betting been an option, maybe political betting would have a little more balance. Then again, the prediction markets did project Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt to wind up facing off in the General Election. Ultimately, that is likely to happen. Currently, Pratt is around 5% behind the incumbent, Bass, with 62% of the votes counted.
Sadly, there is still a long way to go. Funny enough, Bass has been projected to get into the run-off. She was an overwhelming favorite despite all the issues in Los Angeles. Nithya Raman carries 22.8% of the vote at this time. Raman all but made a concession speech on Wednesday but there is a long way to go.
Prediction markets swung big on Pratt, especially in California. While he is still a longer shot to win in November (most are around 4-5x or greater), that number was much higher a mere month ago. Legal sports betting markets have been a bit lagging.
Yes, California still has not fully taken the fight to prediction markets. More and more states are trying to regulate Kalshi and Polymarket. The problem remains the politics in the state. Everything moves slowly. The state of California has 30 days to certify the results of the Governor and Mayoral primaries. Potentially, this means we may not know the results until July 1st or 2nd.
Yes, Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction sites feel ahead of everyone else as far as the ultimate outcome in these primaries. Arguably, there are numbers already on the General Elections in California. It will be interesting to see how the numbers break down volume wise from California to nationwide in five months time. Hopefully, the results are a little faster by then.
With excuses building, much like how legal sports betting has not come to reality in bigger states like California and Texas, it is no surprise why everything is slower in the Golden State. Some point to 23 million registered voters but this slow crawl might increase betting volume down the road. Either way, if anyone wants to know why prediction markets are here to stay in states like California, it is how California works.
