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Donald Trump cut to -165 for Republican Party Nomination after New York Indictment
Updated April 21, 2023
A lot has been happening in the world of US politics again lately, and with Donald Trump seemingly still front and center of it, we thought it was about time we checked in on the latest betting odds to be the next President of the US.
Joe Biden is the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election and claim a second term in the White House. He is +165 with BetOnline to serve the maximum 8-year term.
Despite his indictment, Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the Republican Party nomination.
Just over one month ago, Trump was +100 to win the Republican nomination. He is now into -165
It’s amazing that an indictment can result in a shift in support toward a politician. But that’s exactly what seems to have happened on the back of Donald Trump’s appearance in front of a New York Grand Jury. There is an old saying that bad publicity is better than no publicity. And nobody seems to emphasize this saying more than Donald J Trump does.
Joe Biden leads the way on +165, this after he has indicated he will run again. Ron DeSantis is next. The popular Florida Governor is now +350 to be the 47th President of the United States.
As things stand, there is then a huge gap in the betting odds before we get to the +1600 available on Kamala Harris. Nikki Hayley is next at +3000, having announced her intentions to run for the Republican nomination.
But intriguingly, a name working its way up the betting to be on the same odds as Hayley (think about that for a minute), is of Michelle Obama. The former First Lady is now at +3000 with the top-tier US bookmakers.
Is there anything in this? You’d have to imagine if the former First Lady was considering standing that. Something may have leaked out by now. So maybe it’s just people speculating.
But what Michelle Obama’s presence in the betting does highlight is that with over 18 months to go, there is plenty of water that can run under the bridge in this market. So keep this in mind when wagering.
Is Trump now a value bet to win the Presidential Election?
While the indictment of Donald Trump hasn’t seen his odds of winning the Presidential Election change much, it has seen his odds of winning the Republican Party nomination shorten.
Whatever your view on politics – and we’re not giving a political opinion here, just betting on it – the indictment of Trump became political.
And what we’re saying here is that it forced Republicans to line up behind Trump and back him. What this, in turn, has done is strengthened Trump’s standing with the GOP support base. This meant the likes of Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley had to come out and publicly back Trump or risk losing support amongst their own core.
This has seen Donald Trump’s odds to be the Republican nomination shorten from +100 to -165. And this after he looked to be dead in the water after the midterms!
Things can change quickly in US Politics
As we’ve just pointed out, things can quickly change in US politics. When the Republican Party’s Red Wave failed to materialize in the recent midterms, most observers pointed to Trump’s confrontational style of politics. They predicted the end of the 45th President’s political career.
Fast forward six months and one indictment later, and that theory couldn’t be further from the truth.
Joe Biden seems certain to be the Democratic nominee for the Presidential Election, and this is supported in the betting, where he is -600 to be the party’s nomination. In the past few weeks, we’ve seen Robert F. Kennedy Jr. launching his bid to become the Democratic nominee, and who knows who else may throw their hat into the ring across the coming weeks and months.
Again, we come back to the name of Michelle Obama. In this market, Obama is now third in the betting behind Biden (-600), and Kamala Harris (+800). She is +1400, and that puts her way ahead of Kennedy Jr. at +2500.
To say the Kennedys are a political dynasty would be an understatement. And although this generation is obviously less famous than the previous if Robert Kennedy Jr can get some momentum behind him, who knows what might happen.
And the thought of Michelle Obama throwing her hat into the ring as well! Now that would really set the political world alight. And it may even be something that could overshadow Donald Trump!
Where’s the value bets at this stage?
The problem with betting in this market this far out is age-old. Until we know for sure who is running, it’s hard to make a judgment call.
But what we do know is that nothing seems to stick to Trump, and the more that’s thrown at him, the more popular he seems to get. But that doesn’t necessarily equate to an election win. Both Republicans and Democrats rely on middle America to sway the election, and middle America may well have had their fill of Trump – even if the Republican Party faithful seem to love him.
At this stage, it’s too early to call. But with plenty of political betting opportunities currently available, why not back Michelle Obama? If she does stand, her odds will drastically shorten. So now might just be the time to back her.
Michelle ObamaTo win 2024 US Presidential Election
Dean has a strong affinity for the English Premier League and cricket, but his extensive understanding of sports allows him to discuss a wide range of athletic topics. Previously, Dean has explored the world to attend events such as the FIFA World Cup and Ashes cricket matches, but currently, he prefers to enjoy sports from the coziness of his home.