Dubbed “the Match 4,” the latest version of the exhibition golf series, see Tom Brady and Phil Mickelson reteam to take on Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers. In our Mickelson and Brady vs. Rodgers and DeChambeau betting picks and preview, we provide details on the course and make predictions on the winner of the event and many of the golf betting specials available at MyBookie.
When they announced this match a few months, online sportsbooks had Bryson and Rodgers as bigger favourites. However, after Phil’s improbable win at the 2021 PGA Championship, the Match 4 golf betting odds have moved, and the match will be more competitive than initially expected.
Phil is 2-1 in the Match series, with the loss coming with Tom Brady as his partner against Peyton Manning and Tiger Woods. Brady struggled on the front nine but managed to right the ship late to make it go down to the final hole.
However, looking at the skills of Bryson and Rodgers golf handicap (compared to Brady’s), we are betting on them to win the Match 4.
Aaron Rodgers is a better golfer than Brady. Rodgers’ handicap is only 4.6, while Brady’s is 8.1. Rodgers has been away from football lately – as he deals with his unhappiness with the Green Bay Packers – meaning he could be golfing more frequently than expected going into the event.
The golf course is also favourable for big powerful golfers like Bryson DeChambeau. There are multiple holes over 600 yards (and three par fives on the back nine) at Moonlight Basin, which will benefit team DeChambeau – Rodgers.
It should be a competitive match, as the elevation will help every hit the ball further, but we expect Bryson and Rodgers to come out on top on hole 17 or hole 18.
There are plenty of reasons to bet on Bryson DeChambeau bombing a drive longer than 450 yards. The course is well above sea level – making the air thinner and easier to hit objects long distances. The design of the course features elevated tees meaning you can get more distance and roll off your tee shot.
Consider the 17th hole at Moonlight Basin. The par 5 runs 777 yards from tee to the pin. To put that in perspective, the longest hole at Augusta National is the second at 575 yards. Most people, when they hear 777 yards, think it should be at least a par 6. However, when you consider all the details of the hole, it is much more reasonable than expected.
The fairway on hole 17 tumbles downward for a change of a few hundred feet – with the scale of the slope increasing after a bunker in the middle of the fairway 370 yards from the tee.
Bryson holds the highest average drive of any golfer on the PGA Tour at 322.7 yards. However, with the elevation of the course, Bryson should come closer to hitting it 400 yards (which he has done before at other courses). Once the ball gets past the bunker on 17, it has a chance to roll another 40 to 50 yards thanks to the slope.
Also, there are other holes on this course where Bryson could hit a 450+ yard drive (if you are worried about betting yes on this golf prop and then the event ending early).
In the three previous matches – the only one not to last all 18 holes was the Match 3. However, unlike the other two, the Match 3 features a team without a professional golfer (Steph Curry and Peyton Manning teaming up against Mickelson and Barkley).
We can see this match ending on hole 17 – the 777-yard behemoth we talked about when talking about Bryson hitting a 450+ yard drive. That presents the most significant advantage for team Rodgers and Bryson. We expect it to be a back and forth match, with Rodgers and Bryson up one hole by 17. Once they win this hole – going up two – the event is over.
When this golf betting prop was available on the Match 2, Peyton Manning lost by one yard to Tom Brady (on hole 15). Manning is older than Brady and Rodgers – and also, when we last saw him playing football, it was clear he had lost a lot of throwing passing.
Is throwing a football and golfing the same thing? No, but athleticism is considered important for most physical sports skills. Because Manning only lost to Brady by a yard, we think Brady’s best golf skills are not off the tee. We also like the betting value on Rodgers as the underdog to win this golf prop bet.
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