Political betting is a huge betting market on both sides of the pond, and even though it looks a nailed-on certainty that Liz Truss will be the next UK Prime Minister when the results are confirmed next week, there are still plenty of betting markets offering value for some Politics betting picks.
Truss currently is unbackable. She is -3000 to be the next UK Prime Minister. Her one remaining rival, Rishi Sunak is +900.
But even now, there are still plenty of live betting markets on the outcome of the next Conservative Party leader.
First, a quick lesson on how the British constitution works. For those not in the know of UK politics, the next Conservative (Tory) Party leader, will become the next UK Prime Minister.
This isn’t a General Election. It is a dispute within the Conservative Party that has seen the party’s MPs oust their leader, Boris Johnson. And they are now voting on his replacement. Who will in turn, also become the next British Prime Minister?
The Conservative Party has gotten it down to two candidates, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. The choice now is with the Conservative Party members to appoint a new party leader, with the results to be announced in the first week of September.
Currently, the opinion polls are showing Truss as miles ahead. Her vote percentage is expected to be in the 60 to 65% region. And that’s where the best online betting sites are now focusing their attention.
Some of the top online betting sites are offering a vote share market in sections. For example, will Truss get between 60% and 65%, or 66% to 70%, etc? But the betting we’re looking at is for the straightforward over/under market.
Liz Truss is believed to be the closer of the two candidates to Boris Johnson. And Johnson is still well-liked by Conservative Party members.
This makes it likely that she will win a larger share of the vote percentage. But with 64.5% being not far off a two-thirds majority, that seems a big ask to me.
Boris Johnson got 66.4% of the vote in 2019, and he was far more popular than Truss.
So I’m going for Liz Truss’ vote share to be under 64.5% for my betting pick.
Even though Boris Johnson is on his way out in the United Kingdom, political betting is still a big hit with the best online betting sites.
Big names like Boris Johnson leaving the arena will dampen enthusiasm. But in the USA, there is still the name of Donald Trump looming large.
Indeed, such is the political influence held by Trump, he is even listed as Donald Trump Sr in the betting odds on the next Presidential Election, due to the speculation that Donald Trump Jr may pick up the mantle.
While names like these lurking around, political betting will always be popular.
Such is the disarray in the Conservative Party and the fear of losing the next General Election in 2024; there is already chatter and speculation about whether Liz Truss is well equipped to lead the party into the General Election. And, more importantly, win it.
Such is the nature of MPs; if they fear losing their seat, they will change the leader. Just look at what happened to Boris Johnson.
With the next General Election set for May 2024, it’s rumoured that Truss has around 12 months to win the public over. Or she could face a similar fate next summer to Boris Johnson’s.
It’s probably unlikely the Conservative Party will change leader that close to a General Election. But in these days of political uncertainty, who knows what might happen? So don’t rule out the possibility of this happening again soon.
With the result of the next Conservative Party leader still not official, many sportsbooks have pulled their betting markets on who will win the next General Election in the UK. When they go live again soon, expect to see it looking close between the Conservatives and Labour.
Due to the Political landscape of Britain, a big shift would be needed to see enough seats change hands from Conservative to Labour to see Labour win.
There is a good possibility that the Conservatives won’t win outright but may look to form a minority government. But the basics are that if Truss does a half-decent job, she will probably hang onto enough Conservative seats. Which should be enough to form the next government.
So if you believe Truss will win over the minority of voters, she needs to hold onto a lot of the seats required, then the odds on the Conservatives to form the next government after the 2024 UK General Election will probably not get much better than when the markets return.
On the other hand, if you believe the cost of the living crisis (currently taking place in the UK) will be blamed on the Conservative Government, then it might be worth backing Labour.
But bear in mind that during the recent pandemic, the British public, by and large didn’t hold the government responsible.
So Truss can take heart from that, which strengthens her chances of success at the 2024 General Election.
