A General Election in the United Kingdom is on its way. But with the UK Labour Party looking an absolute certainty to win, where is the betting value? One futures market that could be of interest is the Conservative Party’s vote percentage, and in our latest politics betting picks, we take a look and bring you the answer.
The Conservative Party is the most successful political party in the United Kingdom when it comes to winning general elections.
But a bit like John Major’s Tory government in 1997, the current Conservative government looks washed up and just waiting to be voted out.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak seems to be stumbling from one crisis to another, many self-inflicted, and the writing looks to already be on the wall for the former Chancellor and his government.
In the betting to be Prime Minister after the General Election, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is -1000, with Sunak at +600.
Considering the positions of both parties, that seems like good odds on Starmer. But the Labour Party and Keir Starmer are also deeply unpopular, just not as unpopular as Sunak and his Tory Party.
So, where does this leave us when it comes to the vote percentage of the Tory Party?
On one hand, a lot of disgruntled Tories voters might come out and vote for the party when push comes to shove. But the alternative to that is floating voters supporting Labour as they just want to get the Conservatives out, no matter what.
If a lot of the latter voters come out to vote, that will at the very least neutralize any late Tory surge in support. But if the Tory voters choose to give their party a kicking, it could be a disastrous election night for Rishi Sunak.
For a long time now, the Tory Party has been polling at around 20 to 25 percentage points behind Labour.
At the time the General Election was announced, voting intentions were 44.3% for Labour and 23.5% for the Tories. That gives Labour a lead of just over 20%.
Based on that analysis, Labour would win over 400 seats, which would be an unthinkable disaster for the Conservatives.
In the latest political betting, the Tories are -120 to get over 27.5% of the vote share. They are also -120 to get under 27.5% of the share.
Elsewhere, in the latest betting to win most seats, Labour is -3500, and the Tories are +1000.
It’s simply not looking good for Rishi Sunak in any of the current political betting markets.
Check out the latest odds for plenty of political betting opportunities in the UK on our betting table. And for the latest on the US vote later this year, check out our page dedicated to the odds on the Presidential Election.
First of all, we cannot see anything other than Keir Starmer being the next UK Prime Minister.
Okay, the odds of -1000 seem short. But the only thing that is going to prevent Starmer from becoming the next PM of the United Kingdom is some sort of major incident. If it’s purely based on politics, Starmer will win.
The chances of the Tories not getting 27.5% should be slim. Especially given they won 365 seats and 43.6% of the vote in 2019.
But you only need to go back to 1997 to see that Labour won that General Election with a whopping 418 seats, to the Tories 165. The country has given the Tories a kicking before, and there is no reason why they might not do it again.
There are a lot of similarities between the Conservative government in 1997 and the one in power today. The public was angry in 1997, just like they are in 2024. It is not inconceivable that something similar will happen.
But even in 1997, when John Major’s Conservative Party only won 165 seats, they still got 30.7% of the vote share. In that General Election, Labour won with 43.2% of the vote – a figure lower than they are projected to get in 2024.
The difference this year is the Reform Party.
They look set to take a lot of Tory votes off Rishi Sunak. The best way the Tory Party can increase their vote share is by getting disgruntled voters back from Reform. If they do, they should be over 27.5%. If they don’t, we can’t see them covering that spread.
As things stand, Rishi Sunak has his work cut out. The Tories have been regularly polling at under 25% in the opinion polls. And although the opinion polls are not always correct, we feel they are a good enough indicator to back under 27.5%.
Check out our partner table below, where you will find the best online betting sites in the USA in 2024 for political betting:
