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2018 French Open Vegas Betting Predictions
Updated June 30, 2022
King Of Clay Huge Favorite In Paris
Even a recent loss on clay failed to move the odds on Rafael Nadal in the upcoming French Open.
The 10-time champion of this Grand Slam event fell in straight sets to Austria’s Dominic Thiem in the quarter-finals of the Madrid Open — the 31-year-old’s first defeat on clay in 21 consecutive matches.
The loss dropped Nadal out of the top spot in the world with Roger Federer regaining the No. 1 ranking. Federer is skipping the clay court season and the main event at Roland Garros in Paris, which starts May 21 and ends June 10.
Nadal will defend his title as a -225 favorite on the men’s side in the premier clay court tennis championship — the second of the four annual Grand Slam events. Simona Halep is the +450 choice on the women’s side (odds provided by Bovada).
Jelena Ostapenko (+1400) won the women’s title last year in this historic tournament, which was first held 127 years ago in 1891.
Thiem Has Beat Nadal Twice
With Federer skipping the French, there are really only two major threats to Nadal’s incredible dominance on Court 1 — Thiem (+650) and Novak Djokovic (+1200).
Thiem has never made deep runs in Grand Slam events, but he has made the semifinals in each of the last two years at the French Open. He’s also defeated Nadal twice on clay, a fact that can’t be overlooked.
Djokovic has made at least the quarterfinals in each of his last eight French Open appearances, including the title in 2016. But Djokovic has struggled since his return from an elbow injury which has plagued him for the last 12 months, and many are now wondering if his best days are behind him.
There’s not a lot of value in betting on Nadal to win the French, but his play in Paris is unparalleled. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is a perfect 10-0 in French Open finals. It’s almost impossible to bet against one of the greatest players of all time on his favorite surface.
Halep is the lukewarm pick on this side of the draw, thanks to a very deep field. The top-ranked player in the world has finished runner-up twice at her favorite tournament, but she has never won a Grand Slam event. She has one tournament win this year.
Garbine Muguruza (+700) was the defending champion in 2016, but she lost in the quarter-finals last year. The No. 3-ranked player in the world has one victory this season and two career Grand Slam titles. The 24-year-old’s unpredictable play makes her a tough pick with any conviction, especially at these odds.
Serena Williams (+600) hasn’t played a competitive match on clay this season, but her coach still believes she can win the French. Williams, who gave birth in September, recently withdrew from tournaments in her comeback and has been training for the last few weeks in the south of France.
She has won the French Open three times among her 23 career Grand Slam victories. She will be ready for this.
Las Vegas sports books like the Aria and the rebranded Park MGM offer future bets on all the major tennis events, but there are many more wagering options available that will add to the excitement of the match at online sites like Bovada, TopBet and Betonline.
These top-quality sites offer betting on the money line, spread and totals and the game within the game in prop bets.
Match and set props are a list of bets for just about every outcome in the contest. Pick your player and predict the exact score of the first set. Then there’s the game spread where bettors choose the numbers of games played in the match for individual players and for both rivals.
What Do These Betting Numbers Mean?
Let’s take a look at the two French Open favorites and see how much money you can make betting on them.
Any time you see a minus sign in front of the betting line, that’s how much money you have to bet to make a profit of $100. Nadal is a -225 favorite, which means you have to bet $225 to earn a $100 profit ($225 bet plus $100 profit = $325 total return).
Any time you see a plus sign in front of the betting line, that’s how much profit you make on a $100 bet. Halep is a +450 favorite on the women’s side, which means you have to bet $100 to make a $450 profit ($100 bet plus $450 profit = $550 total return).