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NFL Super Bowl prop bet for Patrick Mahomes total passing yards
Updated February 10, 2023
The stage is set for arguably the best quarterback out there. All season long, people assumed that Josh Allen would be the AFC signal-caller with the best chance to take home the Lombardi Trophy. Now, though, we’re looking at the NFL Super Bowl prop bet for Patrick Mahomes total passing yards, as he’s now in line to win it all for the second time in his career. What kind of numbers will Mahomes put up?
Patrick Mahomes should toss for a bunch of yards vs. the Eagles
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl • Sunday, February 12th at 6:30 p.m. ET • State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Heading into the Super Bowl, the assumption is that Patrick Mahomes should toss for a bunch of yards vs. the Eagles, and we have little doubt that’s going to be the case. While the Eagles have a strong defense, there have been times when their secondary has been a bit shaky. Cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry will look to change that narrative in Arizona.
With Mahomes, though, it has been nearly impossible to prevent him from having a big game. In the AFC title game, the man was playing on one foot, as he suffered a high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round against the Jaguars. He fought through the pain and played one heck of a game against the Cincinnati Bengals this past Sunday.
Despite dealing with his injury, Mahomes threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the end zone for six. The Chiefs couldn’t get their rushing game going against the Bengals, leaving it to Mahomes to do his thing through the air, which proved to be the right decision by the coaching staff.
According to the best-rated sportsbooks, which includes the reliable Bovada Review, the over/under for Mahomes and his passing Yards in the Super Bowl has been set at 289.5 yards. The over/under holds -110 NFL betting odds. Mahomes has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his last seven games. With the team relying on his arm, we’re going with the over as our pick for his passing yards.
Patrick Mahomes will be limited running due to his ankle injury
As heroic as his performance was in the AFC Championship Game, there’s no denying that Patrick Mahomes will be limited running due to his ankle injury. We saw how hobbled he looked at times against the Bengals running the ball, even with his last-minute run, which set up the game-winning field goal by Harrison Butker with only a little time left on the clock.
With the Super Bowl less than two weeks away, Mahomes is going to have a little bit of time to heal up and try to become more mobile, but head coach Andy Reid is not going to want him to take off and run like we have seen previously from the star QB in his career. If Mahomes were to injure himself again in the Super Bowl and Chad Henne’s number is called, it’d be a nightmare for the Chiefs.
From our chair, we think the right decision for Mahomes will be to stay in the pocket as much as possible and create magic with his cannon instead of his legs. While planting himself might sting right now in throwing the ball, it’s a much better option for him than trying to run. This is something that offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will think about when calling plays.
Per the oddsmakers, Mahomes holds +500 anytime, scoring touchdown odds. Remember, though, that for a quarterback, these odds are recording a TD that isn’t a pass, but rather instead a rushing or receiving one. If Mahomes sees a lane and decides to take off in the red zone, he could score a TD on the ground. This is a close call, but we’re going against Mahomes posting a rushing score vs. the Eagles.
Patrick Mahomes should toss for at least two touchdowns
While we don’t think he’ll have luck scoring on the ground, Patrick Mahomes should toss for at least two touchdowns against the Eagle’s defense. Mahomes was born to throw TDs, and we’d be surprised if one of those scores in the Super Bowl doesn’t go to superstar tight end Kelce, who has been on an absolute tear from start to finish this season.
The over/under for Mahomes’ passing touchdowns has been placed at 1.5, with -220 NFL Super Bowl betting odds provided for both. In the biggest game of the year, you know Mahomes will bring his best stuff, with a 300-yard showing and 2-3 touchdowns in the cards. At least two throwing touchdowns for Mahomes? Yup, that’s an easy pick for us. He’ll be brilliant and could end up winning MVP here.
Patrick Mahomes to throw at least two passing TDs in the Super Bowl