Up 2-1 in the NBA Finals , playing Game 4 on their home court. On the surface, it would appear that the Indiana Pacers have a lot going for them as they seek to pull a massive upset over the heavily-favored Oklahoma City Thunder.
However, oddsmakers aren’t ready to give up on the Thunder. Heading to the court for Game 4, the Thunder are set as 6-point road favorites. Oklahoma City was set as the overwhelming -675 chalk in NBA Finals betting at the outset of this series.
Let’s look at the latest betting line. Remember, odds are always subject to change.
 | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -6 (-105) | -230 | O 225.5 (-115) |
| Indiana Pacers | +6 (-115) | +190 | U 225.5 (-105) |
History suggests that Indiana is in the driver’s seat in the NBA Finals. The team winning Game 3 has gone on to win 33 of 41 series. That’s an 80.5% win rate.
If the Pacers win Game 4, the odds get even better. Teams that take a 3-1 lead in an NBA playoffs series win 95.6% of the time (285-13). In the NBA Finals, teams that go ahead 3-1 are 37-1 all-time. That’s a 97.4% success rate.
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The Pacers are 5-3 both straight up and against the spread in their last eight meetings with the Thunder. At Indiana, the Pacers are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four visits by the Thunder.
The Thunder are 15-6 SU in their past 21 games. They are 19-2 SU in their past 21 games facing Eastern Conference opposition. However Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in the club’s last eight road games. They’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Central Division teams.
Indiana is 8-3 ATS over the past 11 games. They are 15-5 SU over their past 20 games. The Pacers are 17-4 SU in the club’s last 21 home games. And Indiana is 5-1 SU in the last six contests facing Western Conference opponents.
Two of the three games in this series have gone under. However, four of the past six games between Indiana and Oklahoma City went over. On home court, Indiana is 4-2 on the total the last six times playing host to the Thunder.
Six of Oklahoma’s past 10 games have gone over. Three of the last four road games played by the Thunder have gone over. Against Eastern Conference teams, Oklahoma City is 8-5 on the total in the past 13 games.
Four of Indiana’s last six games against Northwest Division squads have gone over. Six of the last 10 home games played by Indiana also hit on the over.
The Thunder are 79-19 SU as the betting favorite this season. On the road, Oklahoma City is 26-21 ATS. Indiana is 23-25-1 ATS as a home team. The Pacers are 23-20 SU as the underdog in the betting line.
Pacing the Pacers to victory in Game 3 was the club’s bench strength. Indiana enjoyed a massive 49-18 edge over Oklahoma City in bench points. Canadian Bennedict Mathurin led the way with 27 points off the bench.
TJ McConnell accounted for 10 points, five assists and five steals. No player had previously done that from off the bench in an NBA Finals game.
Among the starters, Pascal Siakim scored 21 points and Tyrese Haliburton was good for 22 points. Indiana is 10-0 SU in the club’s past 10 games following a defeat.
During the NBA regular season, the Thunder were 61-2 SU when leading going into the fourth quarter. In this series they are 1-2 SU when leading going into the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City was leading by five points entering the fourth quarter of Game 3.
The Thunder were outscored 32-18 in the fourth quarter. They shot just 35% from the field during the final period.
Two stats jump right off the page when anlayzing the betting lines for this game. First of all, there’s Oklahoma City’s 0-8 ATS run over the past eight away contests. Pair that with Indiana’s impressive 9-3 ATS slate in the last 12 games when playing as the underdog.
Oklahoma City could very well win this game and draw even in the series. But beating the Pacers on the road by more than six points seems unlikely. Play the Pacers to cover the spread in your Game 4 NBA Finals betting.
