The most exciting betting horse race of the year is coming up Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs: the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby! The purse for the Run for the Roses has been raised to $5 million for this historic edition, and a field of 20 talented three-year-olds will go 1 ¼ miles on the dirt for that huge purse, the iconic blanket of roses, and a place in horse racing history.
This is the place to find out the best horses to bet in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, as well as the best places to get real Las Vegas odds on the Kentucky Derby online!
Betting the Kentucky Derby Online
The first decision you need to make when you bet the Kentucky Derby is where to play the race online. Choosing the right online sportsbook can help you maximize your profit on this race and on horse racing and sports betting all year long.
Our Las Vegas online betting sites reviews are the best place to start. All of our recommended sportsbooks have real Vegas odds, great user interfaces, and trusted payouts. They also offer guides to the bonuses each site offers, so you can choose the most profitable benefits for your betting style. Take a few minutes now to pick the right one, and maximize your profits in the Kentucky Derby and beyond!
This is the official field for the 2024 Kentucky Derby including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds:
Epic Ride and Mugatu will only draw in, in that order of priority, if horses scratch from the main field before 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, when Kentucky Derby betting begins.
More than in any other race, post positions matter in the Kentucky Derby. An inside post can get a horse stuck in traffic. An outside post can lose a horse ground in a race that is longer than the horse has ever seen. The good posts are the moderately-inside to middle post positions: think gates 4 through 10.
These are the Vegas odds on the horses at the top of the market, according to some of the top online sportsbooks:
 |  |  |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Fierceness | +250 | +275 | +250 |
| Sierra Leone | +400 | +330 | +300 |
| Forever Young | +850 | +1000 | +900 |
| Just a Touch | +1100 | +1200 | +1100 |
| Honor Marie | +1600 | +2000 | +1900 |
| Encino | +1600 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Stronghold | +2000 | +2000 | +1800 |
Sierra Leone, the morning-line second choice, might be the most likely winner. Dornoch, the blinkers-on Track Phantom, and Fierceness should give him a hot pace to close into. His closing run in the Blue Grass was impressive in the stamina it showed, and if he works the same kind of trip in the Derby he will be tough to hold off.
Catching Freedom, the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, is another horse who has been coming into his own as the prep races get longer. He is also a late runner who, like Sierra Leone, should get the right setup in the Kentucky Derby. Catching Freedom’s jockey is also a huge part of his appeal: Flavien Prat has finished in the top three in five of the six editions of the Derby in which he has run.
Among the favorites, bet against Fierceness and Forever Young. Morning-line favorite Fierceness is dazzling at his best, but a 20-horse race is not a place to take a short price on a horse who disappoints if anything doesn’t go his way. Forever Young is undefeated in five starts, but has not faced top-class Derby hopefuls yet and the poor record of the UAE Derby (G2) is a concern.
The best betting value on the board belongs to Honor Marie; even if his 20-1 morning line does not hold, something in the range of 12-1 on this stamina-bred son of Honor Code is both likely and appealing, especially from an excellent middle post position.
Though he has tables to turn on Catching Freedom from the Louisiana Derby, Honor Marie can move forward third off the lay. He found his best in the third start of his form cycle last year, too, winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill. He worked well over the local course leading into the draw, suggesting that he should be ready to run his race and make a great closing run.
The other particularly interesting longshot in the Kentucky Derby is Encino. He tries top-level company for the first time in the run for the roses: he earned his points in the John Battaglia on Tapeta, and then the Lexington (G3), which he won first-time dirt. But, he is getting good at the right time, he drew well, he has the versatility to win from the front or midpack, and everything about his pedigree is classic dirt stamina.
For underneath shares of exotics, Just Steel appeals. He finished second in three of the four prep races at Oaklawn including the Arkansas Derby (G1), showing he continues to be that consistent underneath type even as the distances extend. With a solid middle post position that should allow him to make the most of his pace versatility, a piece underneath can happen again.
History and trends can help you put the Kentucky Derby winner in focus. Even though Rich Strike — third in his final prep — was an aberration, most modern Derby winners finish first or second in their final prep. The most important final preps include the Florida Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), and Santa Anita Derby (G1), though the Louisiana Derby (G1) and Blue Grass (G1) are increasing in profile, especially for board-hitters.
The betting favorite does not always win, but that horse usually runs well: in every year since the point system began in 2013, the favorite has found the superfecta. However, the favorite has not won in the last five years, meaning it is smart to go ahead and bet a promising price horse to win!
To hit the Kentucky Derby trifecta, you select the top three horses. You can play it straight, or you can box them in order to win if they finish in any order.
In this instance, the Kentucky Derby handicapper is betting that the inconsistent Fierceness, who could run into trouble and come up with one of his flat efforts, will not hit the board but some logical price horses will.
The Kentucky Derby superfecta is a bet that usually pays off big. It i difficult in a twenty-horse field, but huge payoffs make it worth a large investment. Playing a box is more expensive than playing it straight, but ensures you hit if the longshot or longshots you like run well.
A smart cost-effective option is a key. Choose a horse you really like to hit the board, and then play a group of horses in the other positions. Don’t be afraid to use a long shot who did not win their final prep race; many longshots have recently moved forward to finish in the money.
