While some focus shifts because of the Stevenson-Lopez news, there is that Saturday fight after Christmas in Saudi Arabia. Again, Vegas Betting hones in on the December 27th bout between Naoya Inoue and David Picasso. So, the 122-pound weight class gives us one more chance to see “The Monster” in 2025. Alright, so who will win in the Inoue vs Picasso bets in a little over two weeks time?
Numbers have stabilized for this upcoming bout and look more like what we saw for the fight against Doheny. So, the prime Las Vegas online boxing betting sites were looking yet again for more options in this after Christmas bout. Yes, this feels a bit traditional for Inoue.
| Inoue vs Doheny Odds |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naoya Inoue | -4000 | -5000 | -5000 |
| David Picasso | +1400 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Over 5.5 Rounds | -135 | -130 | -125 |
| Under 5.5 Rounds | EVEN | EVEN | +105 |
Inoue vs Picasso bets run far from the Moneyline. Anytime, Naoya Inoue fights, the Moneyline is not profitable. The overwhelming favorite this time figures to not be tested. Yes, when a number stays in the -4000 to -5000 range, that is a sign. While Alan Picasso is a very good fighter, he is stepping up to a level the Mexican boxer has never seen.
Some of the most recent fights with Inoue have been telling. He really wanted to just pummel Murodjon Akhmadaliev. The former champion stood no chance but it was like target practice for the Japanese champion. First, Inoue rumbles in with 31 wins and 27 knockouts. That knockout percentage could have stayed above 90% if the champion had been a bit more dedicated to knocking out his adversary in September.
The problem for Inoue lies may be what lies ahead. Yes. Junto Nakatani relinquished his WBC and IBF bantamweight belts for a shot at Inoue in 2026. This Japanese “mega fight” would be one for the ages. However, Inoue must take care of business first. Picasso possesses an artistic like intelligence in the ring with some formidable combination power. Like Inoue, he leans on body shots to the solar plexus and liver areas.
Yes, experts feel that Picasso will try to come at Inoue more and with aggressive intent. Akhmadaliev sat back too often and got picked apart whenever he attempted to move in. Inoue’s quickness in this division gets underrated a lot. His power and angles are far more well known.
At 122 pounds, Naoya Inoue wants the knockout this time. This may not be that much of a challenge. So, the Inoue vs Picasso bets project a bout where the Japanese pugilist expects to end this anywhere from Round 7 to Round 10. Some of the problems rest in the fact that most books feel this fight may end in Round 5 or Round 6.
The lesson learned from the previous bout was that the Inoue decision at +450 was much nicer odds than the KO/TKO/DQ (-260). Kevin Iole, a Hall of Fame boxing and MMA journalist, noted that Inoue really likes playing with his food too much. Sometimes it hurts him and sometimes it hurts the sports bettors. I guess there are worse things in life, right? Exactly!
Sportsbooks roll the decision in now at the +550 to +650 range to lure in some unsuspecting bettors. Picasso knows this is his shot and he is going to try and power shot to Inoue’s body. Few fighters have been remotely successful in getting to the champion’s body with frequency. Picasso is 25, has quite a bit of experience, but not at the highest level.
If one wants to try a different route, then one choice is to go for the Round 8 or 9 knockout. Both are at +1000 or better. Actually rounds 7 and 9 are at a respectable +275. The other is probably just going for the exact method of victory. Even a general later rounds bet at +175 (Rounds 7-12) has a little better action than what one may expect here.
Inoue vs Picasso bets ask can Picasso paint one for the world? The Moneyline bet here is a whopping +1600 on BetOnline and Mybookie. Few would be surprised if that moves out a little bit more between now and December 27th. Then again, do some from the Americas try to get in on the action? Quite a few people believe in Picasso and think he could be ready here.
Okay, everyone keeps looking at the decision number at +4000. It is worth digging into as Picasso does have the speed in his hands to disrupt Inoue. The only question is will it be enough. The Japanese champion adjusts on the fly often in his bouts. Can the younger fighter keep up with those changes? That will be telling and a key aspect of this fight.
This fight also depends on Picasso not being afraid to get hit with power shots back. Oddly, the Kyonosuke Kameda bout told Picasso he needed to work on some things. For one, his speed needed to be quicker but his angles for power shots and combinations had to be better. Relying on the jab and some body work will not get it done against Inoue.
Picasso needs the result of a lifetime and that only comes with getting the monster mad. A win on the moneyline here is still the most prudent wager.
Inoue vs Picasso bets like “The Monster” to win by knockout and over 5.5 rounds. Top boxing Vegas odds stick with Inoue as he eyes the big one for 2026. As for Vegas online betting sites, they feature this fight and others to end this year with a bang.
