Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 is the main event for UFC Fight Night this weekend. Shevchenko is the -155 favorite to upset the champion and retake the title. In our latest UFC betting picks, we look ahead to the fight and tell you if the Vegas sportsbooks have got it right.
What: UFC Fight Night
Main Event: Women’s Flyweight Title Bout
Who: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Saturday, September 16th, 2023
Time: 10 pm ET (Main Card)
The women are taking over this weekend with the rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, headlining the latest UFC Fight Night event. Also on the card in the co-main event is Kevin Holland against Jack Della Maddalena.
Full betting on the main card is on our UFC odds table. The odds we have used are from the best UFC betting sites.
Starting with the main event, this is a rematch for the Women’s Flyweight Title. The original fight was back in March at UFC 285 and was won by Grasso, who forced the then champion Valentina Shevchenko to submit in the fourth round with a face crank hold.
Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-0) went into that fight as the massive favorite. Some bookmakers had her as short as -750 to defeat Grasso. She was on a winning streak of nine and hadn’t lost since 2017 when Amanda Nunes defeated her at UFC 215 via a split decision.
The defeat did come as a shock, and the rematch is Shevchenko’s chance to reclaim the title she believes is hers.
On the night back in March, Alexa Grasso (16-3-0) was the massive outsider at +500. She shocked the whole of the UFC with the win. But she won’t want to give up her title at the first time of asking.
Some seasoned UFC observers thought it was a freak result, and Grasso will want to prove them wrong. Confidence shouldn’t be an issue for the Mexican, as she comes into her first title defense on a five-fight winning streak.
One thing for sure is the bookmakers aren’t making the same mistake in the rematch. The latest UFC Vegas betting odds see the champion, Alexa Grasso, at +130. Valentina Shevchenko is the favorite at -155.
In the original fight back in March, Shevchenko was ahead on the scorecards when the fight got stopped. This is significant when picking a winner as it gives us some good insight.
Grasso is the better boxer, but Shevchenko has the better all-round MMA skills. Mexican, Grasso also has age on her side, and at 30 years old, she has five years on her opponent. So, could it be that her win in March was down to Shevchenko having seen better days? Or was it a one-off win that Shevchenko will put right this time around?
This is the question: what makes picking the winner more difficult? But we are sticking with the betting favorite. We feel it will be close and will go the distance. So, for our pick, we are going for a win-by decision for Valentina Shevchenko at +175.
Valentina ShevchenkoTo beat Alexa Grasso by Decision
Can Kevin Holland use his experience to stop the rise of Jack Della Maddalena?
The co-main event sees Kevin Holland (25-9-0) take on Jack Della Maddalena (14-2-0) in a welterweight bout.
Kevin Holland is the more experienced fighter but is the outsider to win at +125. Holland has won his last two fights. In his most recent win, he defeated Michael Chiesa at UFC 291 by forcing a submission with a choke hold, which won him the Performance of the Night award.
In his fight before that, he knocked out Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287. So he comes into this contest in good form, with two high-profile wins on his resume.
Jack Della Maddalena is favored to win the fight at -145. The two defeats suffered by Maddalena were in his first two MMA contests back in 2016. The 27-year-old Australian has won 14 MMA fights on the bounce since.
Five of those wins have come in the UFC, which he joined after being awarded a contract for beating Ange Loosa on Dana White’s Contender series.
Since joining the organization, Della Maddalena has impressed and is an up-and-coming star. He knocked out his first three opponents (Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev, and Danny Roberts) and then beat Randy Brown at UFC 284 by forcing a submission.
In his most recent fight, he defeated Bassil Hafez by a split decision.
The win was close, but Hafez was a replacement for a replacement fighter after two opponents had to pull out in the build-up, leaving Della Maddalena little time to prepare. All of which could have been a factor on the night.
This is what is so great about the UFC. Like with the main-event fight, this is a difficult one to call.
Kevin Holland is a step up in class for Jack Della Maddalena and has all the experience needed to take down an upstart on the big stage. But the Australian looks to have the tools to win if allowed to use them.
We expect Holland to take the fight to Della Maddalena, but if the favorite can keep the fight off the canvas, we think he may have the better punching power. So we are backing Della Maddalena to win by KO/TKO/DQ at +185.
Jack Della MaddalenaTo beat Kevin Holland by KO/TKO/DQ
Dean has a strong affinity for the English Premier League and cricket, but his extensive understanding of sports allows him to discuss a wide range of athletic topics. Previously, Dean has explored the world to attend events such as the FIFA World Cup and Ashes cricket matches, but currently, he prefers to enjoy sports from the coziness of his home.