Nathan Kelly (-600) and Dimitry Solimeis (+425) meet on the card of the final Professional Fighters League fight night of the season. This is a non-tournament contest on what is the PFL Europe Finals. In our latest MMA picks, we look ahead to the main contest and also bring you the latest betting for the four title fights included on the card.
What: PFL Europe 4 2023
Main Event: Nathan Kelly vs. Dimitry Solimeis
Where: 3Arena, Dublin, Ireland
When: Friday, December 8th, 2023
Time: noon ET Main Card 5 pm ET Main Event
In the four titles up for grabs on the night, the winners will also be walking away with $100,000, as well as a coveted PFL belt.
The bantamweight title will be fought over by Frans Mlambo (+215) and Khurshed Kakhorov (-275). In the women’s flyweight contest, Dakota Ditcheva (-2200) is expected to make light work of Valentina Scatizzi (+1100). While in the lightweight division, John Mitchell (-110) takes on Jakub Kaszuba (-120) in what looks set to be a close contest. Finally, Jakob Nedoh (+140) meets Simeon Powell (-170) to decide who is the king of the light heavyweight division.
More betting for the main card is available on our PFL odds table. The odds we have used are from the best UFC betting sites, which also cover all major Mixed Martial Arts events like Bellator and the PFL.
Before we get onto our Kelly vs. Solimeis picks, don’t forget that UFC 296 takes place the following weekend. This will be the last major event from the UFC in 2023, and with Leon Edwards and Colby Covington headlining, it promises to be a spectacular night of action. In the latest UFC Vegas betting odds, Edwards is the marginal favorite at -125. Colby Covington is +105. It is a fight that could go either way.
The Main Event: Nathan Kelly vs. Dimitry Solimeis
The main event involves a showdown between Ireland’s Nathan Kelly and Dimitry Solimeis of France. Although this is a non-tournament fight, the presence of a local name is always welcome in any MMA main event, and Nathan Kelly fits the bill perfectly for the Irish fans.
Kelly has an MMA career of 8-2. He turned pro in 2014 and joined the PFL in 2022. The two defeats came at the start of the Irishman’s career, and he is now on an eight-fight winning streak. His most recent win came in August when he defeated Damion Nelson by unanimous decision. Three of Kelly’s wins have come via knockout, three by submission, and two by decision. Kelly’s two losses came by KO in his opening fight in 2017, and on a split decision in his second bout.
Dimitry Solimeis has an MMA career of 6-3. The Frenchman turned pro in 2017. Solimeis started with two wins and two defeats in the opening four fights of his career. He then went on a four-fight winning streak that was ended by Banjougou Sidibe in October, by unanimous decision.
The breakdown of his fighting record shows four of his wins have come by KO, and two by decision. He has lost twice by submission, and once on decision – his most recent fight.
Nathan Kelly vs. Dimitry Solimeis Betting
In the betting to win the fight, Kelly is a massive favorite at -600 on the money line. Solimeis is +425 to upset the home favorite.
In the over and under betting, the fight is -150 to go more than 1.5 rounds and +120 to finish before the halfway point in the second. For the fight to go the distance, you can get odds of +135, and it is -165, to not require the judges to get involved.
In the method of victory betting, Kelly is +115 to win by submission, +215 to win on points, and +350 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. It’s interesting to see that there is no massive favorite in this market for a Kelly win. Quite often in the world of MMA, a fighter has a signature method of victory that is reflected in the betting. Kelly seems to have all options open.
As for Solimeis, he is +850 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, +1000 on points, and +2600 to win by submission.
Nathan Kelly vs. Dimitry Solimeis: Our Picks
The first thing to point out is that there is little point in backing Nathan Kelly to win on the money line at -600. It may look like a safe bet. But at such short odds, it is a risky one.
Dimitry Solimeis looks like all he has is the proverbial puncher’s chance. And that may be how he goes into the fight, which could make him dangerous. Solimeis has already lost twice to submission. He also knows he is the sacrificial lamb in front of the Irish crowd, so we expect him to come out swinging.
Is the Frenchman worth a small wager at +850 to win by knockout? Maybe. It isn’t the worst cover bet in the world at those odds.
Overall, we feel that Nathan Kelly will win. The Irishman will want to put on a show for his home fans and won’t want to let the judges get involved. We are choosing Nathan Kelly to win by submission as our betting pick.
Dean has a strong affinity for the English Premier League and cricket, but his extensive understanding of sports allows him to discuss a wide range of athletic topics. Previously, Dean has explored the world to attend events such as the FIFA World Cup and Ashes cricket matches, but currently, he prefers to enjoy sports from the coziness of his home.