Grant Dawson and Bobby Green meet in a high-stakes lightweight contest at the UFC Apex this Saturday. This is the headline bout at UFC Fight Night 229. Dawson has worked his way up to #10 in the UFC rankings, and he is the heavy favorite to defeat the veteran Bobby Green, who has 46 MMA bouts on his resume. Here, we look at the main statistics and tell you the best bets to make in our latest UFC betting picks.
What: UFC Fight Night 229
Main Event: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA
When: Saturday, October 7th, 2023
Time: 10 pm ET (Main Card)
Yet again, the UFC is delivering top-class fight cards. Dawson (-445) vs. Green (+310) is the main event, but elsewhere on the undercard is a good middleweight matchup involving Joe Pyfer (-455) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (+350), and there is also a well-matched welterweight bout between Alex Morono (+142) and Joaquin Buckley (-170).
Drew Dober (-455) is heavily favored to defeat Ricky Glenn (+350), and completing the main card is Alexander Hernandez (+120) against Bill Algeo (-142) in a close-looking matchup on paper.
Below, we have compiled an odds table for all the bouts on Fight Night 229. These are the latest UFC Vegas betting odds, taken from the best sites for UFC betting.
Grant Dawson has an overall MMA record of 20-1-1. He is another product of Dana White’s Contender Series, where he earned a UFC contract after defeating Adrian Diaz by submission in 2017.
In the UFC, Dawson has an 8-0-1 record. The one blemish – if you can call it that – was a draw against Ricky Glenn in October 2021. Other than that, the 29-year-old has won all his other fights in the organization and has steadily climbed up the rankings to reach the No.10 position.
In his most recent fight, he defeated Damir Ismagulov by unanimous decision. Dawson went into the contest with the No.12-ranked Ismagulov as the underdog but dominated the fight, keeping his opponent on the mat for the majority of the contest with his superior wrestling skills.
The win saw him move up from No.15 to his current position of 10, leapfrogging his opponent in the process.
Can veteran Green cause an upset?
Bobby Green is a veteran of the sport with a 30-14-1-1 record. This will be the 47th time he steps into the octagon, and it will be his first fight since July, when he submitted Tony Ferguson at UFC 291.
Green was expected to win the fight against Ferguson, and despite it earning him the Performance of the Night award, it wasn’t enough to see him get ranked again in the 155-pound division.
But the win was a much-needed one. And it has put him back in the spotlight after two defeats and a no-contest in his previous three fights. The two defeats were knockout losses to Islam Makhachev (TKO) and Drew Dober (KO).
Dawson vs. Green Betting
The best UFC betting sites have made their feelings clear, and they expect this to be a win for Grant Dawson. On the money line, Dawson is -455, with Bobby Green at +310 to pull off a shock victory.
In the method of victory betting for Grant Dawson, he is +250 to win on points and +350 to win by KO/TKO or DQ. Most significantly, with his superior wrestling skills, Dawson is just +135 to win by submission. In his undefeated nine-fight career in the UFC, Dawson already has four wins by submission on his resume.
For Bobby Green, he is +1800 to win by submission and +900 to win on points.
For a man more renowned for his striking ability, he is +550 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. His record only shows one KO win in recent years. But he has had a real mixed bag of results, both in wins and losses.
Dawson vs. Green Picks
Grant Dawson has been steadily working his way up the UFC. This is a fight he has to win to continue his rise, anything else will be a major setback. Bobby Green may be a wily old fox, but Dawson can’t be losing to him if he wants to contend with the big boys in the lightweight division.
Therefore, we don’t see Dawson taking things lightly against Green, and we expect him to win convincingly.
We also understand that odds of -445 on a Dawson win might be too short for some punters, so we have also looked at the props markets for alternative bets.
We don’t see Bobby Green winning. But if he is to cause a shock, it will be by KO/TKO or DQ. In some of his recent fights, Green has lost by knockout, which suggests he is trading blows. We know that he is likely to spend a lot of time on the canvas if he tries to grapple with Dawson, so we feel he will want to keep the fight upright.
Green is +310 to win the fight by any method and +550 by KO/TKO/DQ. Either option is okay, but the latter bet is obviously better value.
The safest bet of all and our main pick for the fight has to be for Grant Dawson to win by submission at +135. As mentioned, he already has four wins by submission in the UFC. We can see him making it five this Saturday.
Dean has a strong affinity for the English Premier League and cricket, but his extensive understanding of sports allows him to discuss a wide range of athletic topics. Previously, Dean has explored the world to attend events such as the FIFA World Cup and Ashes cricket matches, but currently, he prefers to enjoy sports from the coziness of his home.