Joaquin Buckley (21-6) is looking to establish himself as a bonafide contender in the 170-pound weight class with a victory over former UFC welterweight title holder Kamaru Usman (20-4) as the UFC returns to Atlanta, Georgia for the first time in six years.
Will Buckley pick up his seventh consecutive win or can Usman snap a three-match losing streak now that he’s back in the welterweight division he once dominated? According to the best online betting sites, Buckley is favored to continue his hot streak and establish himself as a true title contender. Here’s how the odds shake out:
 | Win | Rounds |
|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | +225 | O 4.5 (-105) |
| Joaquin Buckley | -275 | U 4.5 (-125) |
Kamara Usman returns to the Octagon for the first time since UFC 294 in October 2023. The 38-year-old former titleholder dominated the welterweight division for four years before Leon Edwards dropped him with a devastating head kick.
After losing a rematch to Edwards, The Nigerian Nightmare moved up to middleweight on short notice and lost a majority decision to Khamzat Chimaev. Now back in the 170-pound weight class a year-and-a-half later, Usman looks to end a three-fight slide.
The top UFC betting sites have Joaquin Buckley as a -275 favorite in Saturday’s main event while Usman is paying out at +225 odds. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds with slight juice (-125) towards the UNDER.
Once a middling middleweight fighter, Buckley has dominated since moving down welterweight in 2023. While his opponent has been idle for almost two years, the 31-year-old American has victories over Vicente Luque, Nursulton Ruziboev, Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington in the past 12 months alone.
With the juice (-125) pointing towards UNDER 4.5 rounds, bettors can get slightly better than even odds (+115) on the fight going the distance.
Joaquin Buckley has finishes in three of his past four wins, upping his career KO/TKO percentage to 71% with a 0.84 knockdown average per 15 minutes. Meanwhile, Kamara Usman has won exactly half his 20 fights by decision. His average fight time is 17:27, compared to Buckley’s 10:39.
If you’re looking for additional value, you can also pick what round the winning fighter will seal the deal.
| Round Betting | |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman- Round 1 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Joaquin Buckley- Round 1 | +650 | +650 | +650 |
| Kamaru Usman- Round 2 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Joaquin Buckley - Round 2 | +750 | +750 | +750 |
| Kamaru Usman- Round 3 | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Joaquin Buckley - Round 3 | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Kamaru Usman- Round 4 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Joaquin Buckley - Round 4 | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Kamaru Usman- Round 5 | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Joaquin Buckley - Round 5 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Kamaru Usman- By Points | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Joaquin Buckley- By Points | +185 | +185 | +185 |
| Draw | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
How much does the 38-year-old Usman have left in the tank? While he’s on a three-match losing streak and hasn’t fought in a year, the former champ performed admirably as a middleweight and is a much more seasoned grappler than his opponent.
If The Nigerian Nightmare can shake off the cobwebs and survive an early onslaught from Buckley, a strong longshot bet is Usman to win by points (+500).
Need a trusted place to get your bets in on Usman vs Buckley? Hit one of the bookmakers listed below. All these sites have bettor-friendly Las Vegas odds for all the fights on the UFC Saturday Night card so you’re not leaving money on the table!
