Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes will headline UFC 314 in Miami on Saturday night with vacant featherweight title up for grabs. While this is the first fight in over a year for the former champion, Lopes has racked up five wins in the last 13 months.
Who’s going to win on Saturday night? According to the best online betting sites, Volkanovski is a slight favorite to reclaim the UFC featherweight title he lost to Ilia Topuria in February 2024 at UFC 298 . Here’s how the odds shake out:
 | WIN | ROUNDS |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | -117 | O 4.5 (-105) |
| Diego Lopes | -103 | U 4.5 (-125) |
Will Volkanovski be rejuvenated after a 14-month break from the ring or is the 36-year-old simply past his prime? Before stepping away from the ring, the Australian suffered consecutive KO losses to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, who recently vacated the featherweight title to move up to lightweight.
Lopes has made a rapid rise up the ranks after debuting less than two years ago. The Brazilian has won five straight bouts, including a decisive victory over Brian Ortega at UFC 306.
The top UFC betting sites have Volkanovski as a small -117 favorite, while Lopes is close to EVEN odds (-103) to win his first championship. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds with the juice (-125) towards the UNDER.
Volkanovski is competing in his 10th title fight in a row, but it’s hard to see a 36-year-old recapturing his old magic after more than a year away from the ring. Lopes is six years younger and five inches taller with a serious leg reach advantage.
Since the money line on both fighters doesn’t offer bettors much value, you can also bet on the method of victory.
| Alternate Method of Victory | |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski Wins by KO | TKO or DQ | +300 | +300 |
| Lopes Wins by KO | TKO or DQ | +300 | +300 |
| Volkanovski Wins by Submission | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Lopes Wins by Submission | +550 | +550 | +550 |
| Volkanovski by Decision / Tech Decision | +210 | +210 | +210 |
| Lopes by Decision / Tech Decision | +500 | +500 | +500 |
Volkanovski has been knocked out in consecutive contests. If you think the streak continues, you can get Lopes at +300 to win by KO, TKO or DQ. However, the Brazilian has won more matches by submission (46%) than KO/TKO (36%) – so the +550 odds look good.
The former champion has only won 12% of his fights by submission – which explains the +1800 odds. Volkanovski has won 52% of his bouts by KO/TKO (+300) and 36% by decision (+210).
If you’re looking for additional value, you can also pick what round the winning fighter will seal the deal.
| Round Betting | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski - Round 1 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Diego Lopes - Round 1 | +850 | +850 | +850 |
| Alexander Volkanovski - Round 2 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Diego Lopes - Round 2 | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Alexander Volkanovski - Round 3 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Diego Lopes - Round 3 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Alexander Volkanovski - Round 4 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Diego Lopes - Round 4 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Alexander Volkanovski - Round 5 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Diego Lopes - Round 5 | +1500 | +1500 | +1500 |
| Alexander Volkanovski - By Points | +210 | +210 | +210 |
| Diego Lopes - By Points | +450 | +450 | +450 |
| Draw | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
If you believe “Alexander the Great” is set to reclaim his 145lb belt, picking the Australian to win by points (+210) seems like the most likely path to victory as he’ll likely go for takedowns and try to wear Lopes down.
However, if you think Diego will continue his upward trajectory and seize the featherweight throne, chances are he won’t win by decision. With an average fight time of 8 minutes and 33 seconds, we like Lopes to win in round 2 (+900) or round 3 (+1000).
Need a trusted place to get your bets in on Volkanovski vs. Lopes? Hit one of the bookmakers listed below. All these sites have bettor-friendly Las Vegas odds for all the fights on the UFC 314 card so you’re not leaving money on the table!
