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Best UFC 295 Picks; Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira Best Bets
Updated November 10, 2023
UFC 295 comes from the iconic Madison Square Garden, with Jiří Procházka taking on Alex Pereira in the night’s main event. The two men will be fighting for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. Pereira (-125) is the slight favorite to win. But Procházka (+105) is MMA veteran and will have different ideas. In our latest UFC betting picks, we look ahead to the fight and tell you what the best value bets are.
What: UFC 295
Main Event: Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York City, United States
When: Saturday, November 11th, 2023
Time: 10 pm ET (Main Card)
The card for UFC 295 is again stacked with high-quality contests. Unlike in some main events, where the odds can be very one-sided, Procházka vs. Pereira is anything but, with both fighters coming in evenly matched with the sportsbooks.
Elsewhere on the card, there is an interim Heavyweight title bout between Sergei Pavlovich (-115) and Tom Aspinall (-115) in the co-main event. While in the women’s main contest, Mackenzie Dern (-195) will be taking on Jéssica Andrade (+165) in a Strawweight matchup. Completing the main card is Matt Frevola (+165) vs Benoit Saint-Denis (-200) and Diego Lopes (+105) vs Pat Sabatini (-135).
All the latest UFC Vegas betting odds for the UFC 295 main card are available below on our UFC betting table. Our odds are from the best sites for MMA betting.
Jiří Procházka has an impressive 29-3-1 record in Mixed Martial Arts. The 31-year-old has won 13 straight contests since he last lost to Muhammed Lawal, back in December 2015. This will only be his fourth fight in the UFC organization, and his first since June 2022, when he defeated Glover Teixeira at UFC 275 for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship with a performance that won him the Fight of the Night award and also the Fight of the Year award for 2022.
Procházka has impressed in all three of his UFC bouts. He also won the Performance and Fight of the Night awards for his win over Dominick Reyes, and he won the Performance of the Night award for his debut win over Volkan Oezdemir at UFC 251.
In total, 25 of Procházka’s 29 MMA wins have come by KO. Three wins have come by submission, and one by decision. The breakdown of his three defeats is two by knockout and one by submission.
An impressive start to life in the UFC
Alex Pereira has an MMA record of 8-2-0. The 36-year-old Brazilian has spent most of his career fighting as Kickboxer, where he has a 33-7 record. As recently as February 2021, he was ranked number one in the kickboxing Middleweight and Light-Heavyweight rankings.
This success prompted Pereira to sign with the UFC in September 2021, and he has taken the organization by storm. Of his ten MMA fights, six have been in the UFC, where he has a 5-1 record. His most recent win came against Jan Błachowicz. Where he won a split decision in what was his Light Heavyweight debut.
Before his win over Błachowicz, Pereira had defeated and then lost to Israel Adesanya, where the pair traded the UFC Middleweight Championship belt. After the defeat at UFC 287, Pereira decided to step up to Light Heavyweight in April 2023 – announcing his decision on his social media channels.
Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira Betting Odds
The best UFC betting sites are favoring the man with lesser fight experience within Mixed Martial Arts. Alex Pereira is -125 to win on the money line, with Jiří Procházka the outsider at +105.
Pereira was -150 over the weekend which did sound a touch short given his lack of experience in MMA. But he has punching power, and anyone who knows anything about Jiří Procházka knows that he will stand and trade and leave himself exposed to take a knockout.
Procházka also doesn’t have the greatest of defenses, which also aids Pereira and is probably part of the reason why the fight is only -145 to go over 1.5 rounds and is just +115 to be under 1.5 rounds.
Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira Betting Picks
Like the top sportsbooks, we can’t see this fight lasting the distance. We expect this to be over quickly, as both men are likely to turn it into a good old-fashioned punch-up. Neither man spends much time wrestling. Which is rare in the UFC, so we would be surprised to see a submission. We simply expect to see the two men go for the knockout.
Pereira statistically has the better defense. The stats tell us that the Brazilian defends 51% of strikes thrown at him, compared to the 40% of Procházka. This can’t be underestimated. And although our initial feeling was that Procházka is the better value bet as he has more MMA experience, we simply can’t ignore statistics that tell us that he is likely to absorb a lot of blows on Saturday night.
Therefore, we have to go with Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ for our betting pick to win the main event.
Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQvs. Jiří Procházka
Dean has a strong affinity for the English Premier League and cricket, but his extensive understanding of sports allows him to discuss a wide range of athletic topics. Previously, Dean has explored the world to attend events such as the FIFA World Cup and Ashes cricket matches, but currently, he prefers to enjoy sports from the coziness of his home.