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NASCAR Kansas Top Picks – Hamlin and Busch Lead Pack
Updated May 11, 2022
As Kansas looms, the NASCAR season is less than two weeks away from the All-Star Race. With a dozen races down, fans are gearing up for the next third of the season. They know what the Next-Gen cars can and cannot do. One thing is for sure. The race for wins and points intensifies each week.
Now, this is the time when we present the top 12 drivers listed below in our NASCAR Vegas online betting odds for the AdventHealth 400. This reveals some enticing NASCAR Kansas Top Picks. It would appear that it’s another Joe Gibbs vs Hendrick Motorsports type of week.
Kyle Larson is the favorite for the NASCAR Kansas race. However, he is not one of our top picks this week. Why? His number is at +680 and his range is just not a good value. Let’s be honest. With a fourth DNF after an unfortunate bit of luck last week at Darlington, the No. 5 car is fourth among all Hendrick Motorsports drivers. That’s correct. Larson stands ninth in the points race 117 points behind leader Chase Elliott.
With a third of the season finished, the concerns are starting to mount some. Larson has one of the fastest setups going into Kansas. He led nearly 30% of the laps in his last four races there. That includes a win and another top-five but there were two subpar results too. So, this is a 50-50 shot. That is what Larson’s season is starting to feel like overall. A mounting sense of frustration exists.
Nor for the 2021 defending series champion, racing on these Spring courses is proving to be a different learning process. There have been some crazy results this season and Larson has tested well at Kansas. The 1.5-mile track is one where Larson can mount some great speed and then run away with it. At the same time, the speed and lap intervals have been fascinating.
The big thing at VegasBetting, we suggest is to again stray from the favorite here. There are some interesting trends on speed, the Next-Gen car, and drivers that can flat out drive a race car in crunch time. Larson is one of those drivers and is listed as a solid favorite for a reason. On the other hand, it just seems like problems have plagued his No. 5 car for the past month or so. It is equally intriguing to look at F1 hypotheticals. That is how Larson races.
It is a given why Denny Hamlin is an excellent shot here. The driver won the NASCAR Kansas twice in the last three years (2021 Goodyear 400. He had two three-five results and had three other times where Hamlin was running at or near the front. Then, disaster struck from DNFs to mechanical issues and worse.
So, the No. 11 car has endured a brutal start to 2022. He has that one win but four DNFs and has led 158 laps. Those are all unusual numbers for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. Hamlin stands just 22nd in the standings overall this far in the season for what feels like forever. Fortunately, there are 14 races before “The Chase” starts but Hamlin needs to get it going at Kansas.
Again, the progressive banking at Kansas is something the Joe Gibbs cars can thrive on at Kansas. There are also drivers with a little less bad luck than Hamlin like Kyle Busch and even Martin Truex Jr. Kyle Busch has recently won at Kansas (last Spring). The younger Busch led 20 laps, including the one that counted the most. He has shown very good speed when mechanical issues have not plagued his No. 18 car.
Busch has had less of a wild ride than Hamlin at Kansas, but the one driver in their staple that has been the most consistent is Martin Truex Jr. The No. 19 car has five top-ten results in his last six Kansas races. If it stays warm enough, Truex Jr. might have a shot at winning this race. With all that said, the NASCAR Kansas Top Picks say to consider Kyle Busch (baby narrative) maybe over Kyle Larson even.
Kyle BuschTo win the NASCAR Kansas AdventHealth 400
NASCAR Kansas Top Picks May Include Ross Chastain?
Again, Ross Chastain has improved every appearance on this Kansas track. The TrackHouse Racing driver is tied for fifth in points standing 89 behind Chase Elliott. Chastain has enjoyed a nice place differential the last two times on the track (double digits).
Chastain comes in at +990 and his range is around +1000 to +1200. See if his value fluctuates a bit around practice and qualifying. The No. 1 car is very fast.
Ross Chastain will again be one to watch at Kansas this week.
It is hard to dismiss Kevin Harvick. Harvick is at +1775 currently and might at least be worth a top-five bet once more. His average finish of 5.5 is only behind Chase Elliott’s 5.2. Elliott has been so consistent with that one win and nine top-ten finishes in 12 races. A tenth is very much in play at Kansas this week and maybe a top-five.
Something to look at every so often is those top-five and top-ten numbers. They can offer some value. Keep that in mind for future reference.
Our Bet For This NASCAR Kansas Race
Take Kyle Busch as our pick to win at Kansas, with Denny Hamlin. and Ross Chastain in the top five as well.
Chris Wassel is a writer who enjoys many sports disciplines but his first love will always be hockey. That love of hockey spawned from a greater appreciation of numbers resulted in diving into sports betting. He has written articles on various sites for years focusing on betting and naturally NHL picks.