As the Olympics coverage comes to an end, fans will inevitably focus on other sports. One of them will undoubtedly be NASCAR. There are only four races to go until “The Chase”. That determines the ultimate Cup Series Champion. It will be a bit of a chaotic time as not all the spots are clinched. Sixteen drivers will have a chance at glory but only one will reign supreme.
The top twelve drivers are listed below in our NASCAR Futures.
| 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Futures |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +225 | +175 | +250 |
| Chase Elliott | +600 | +650 | +600 |
| Kyle Busch | +650 | +800 | +650 |
| Denny Hamlin | +750 | +700 | +750 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +900 | +800 | +900 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1000 | +1000 | +1100 |
| Joey Logano | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| William Byron | +1200 | +1600 | +1200 |
| Alex Bowman | +1300 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1400 | +1600 | +1400 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Christopher Bell | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
The number of drivers that qualify for the playoffs is sixteen. However, it is how they get there that is unique. It is not always enough to accumulate enough points. Points are great but winning is even better. That is why one hears the “win and you’re in” promo quite often.
Now, that being said, drivers can get into the playoffs, based on points, provided there are less than 16 different winners. One slot goes to the regular-season points champion. After that, the other 15 spots go to the different winners. What if there are less than 15 winners?
Drivers that have the most points (but winless) would get seeded behind the winners. So, far 13 drivers have won at least one race. In the last two weeks before the Olympic Break, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola raised the checkered flag in Atlanta and New Hampshire respectively.
There is a reason why winning a race is essential. It can get quite dicey for some drivers to make it otherwise. There are two road courses left at Watkins Glen and Indianapolis. Those races are followed up by Michigan and then Daytona. Imagining trying to qualify for the playoff at Daytona is a prospect no driver wants to face.
Again, all it takes is one race to change things.
This is where the debate for NASCAR Futures begins. Naturally, no one quite knows what will happen during the month of August. There has been an almost three-week break between races after all.
It is easy to see why Larson could be the favorite. There is no driver that has led as many laps as him this year. He would also be leading the points race by a good margin if not for a few unfortunate incidents during the 2021 season. Larson had a piece of metal in his engine in one race. He ran out of fuel in another. There was that one at Pocono where the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver blew a tire on the final lap.
However, that car has been the fastest most weeks during this NASCAR season. Also, to give Larson and his pit crew three weeks to make adjustments almost seems unfair. The break may have been the best thing to happen. Overall, the driver has won four times this year including three in a row.
Again, the problem was the three weeks before the Olympic break. Larson finished 16th, 18th, and 7th. That led to his odds stretching out a bit. That could be viewed as a good thing. It gives time for the driver to get back into a groove.
Hence, our NASCAR futures pick below is while one can get it.
Ahead of the final four races leading to “The Chase”, there is a slight chance that Denny Hamlin could wind up missing the NASCAR playoffs altogether. A lot would have to happen but the door is open to the possibility. This would tilt the NASCAR Futures at least a little more.
Right now, Hamlin leads by a scant 13 points in the regular-season point race over Kyle Larson. Fortunately, Kevin Harvick is also winless and in tenth in the points standings. Also, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has a two-spot cushion to avoid missing the playoff. The fact that the next two weeks feature road courses could actually help the No. 11 driver out. Chase Elliott is one of the best on road courses and has won both of his 2021 races on tracks that involve left and right-hand turns.
According to Racing Reference, the driver has the best average finish at 8.6, led the second-most laps, and has 11 top-five finishes on the season. He had a six-race stretch where the driver finished fourth or better and even led two of those races for more than 200+ laps. It has been that kind of season.
For NASCAR Futures, our best bet is straying away from Hamlin for now.
After the first couple of months, the odds for Kyle Busch were lukewarm at best. After Talladega, Busch stood in 11th place and had no wins. Over the past dozen races, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has won twice, finished in the top five eight times, and risen to fourth in the points race. The only thing that might have slowed him down was the New Hampshire race. There was that unfortunate incident with a pace car?
The question becomes can Busch keep his emotions in check? Winning a championship is possible for the No. 18 driver, but he must stay on the track and keep an even keel going forward. NASCAR did not fine him by the way. However, he will face a little more adversity come playoff time and that is cause for concern.
Take Kyle Larson to win the Chase before his odds shorten again.
See below the top sportsbooks, like Bovada, where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
