The 2021 Nascar Cup Series Championship is reaching its climax, and with one more semi-final to go, there are seven drivers still trying to clinch their place in the Championship 4 playoff final.
| Nascar Series Cup Championship 2021 |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +140 | +130 |
| Chase Elliott | +300 | +320 |
| Denny Hamlin | +320 | +350 |
| Kyle Busch | +1000 | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +1000 | +1000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | +1000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2500 | +3300 |
| Joey Logano | +4000 | +5000 |
So far only Kyle Larson has confirmed his place in the playoff final. He has won both Round of 8 playoff races so far and sits top of the standings.
All the other seven drivers have a chance to win the final Round of 8 race on Sunday, the Xfinity 500. And in doing so, automatically qualifying for the playoff final.
As it stands, if none of the seven win, it will come down to points to decide the other three finalists.
With Chase Elliot and Denny Hamlin out in front, if it comes down to purely points, it will be a five-way fight for the fourth and final place.
Only 6 points separate Kyle Busch (4th), Ryan Blaney (5th), Martin Truex Jr (6th), and Brad Keselowski (7th), so it promises to be an exciting final race.
The eighth driver, Joey Logano, is 20 points behind Keselowski and basically needs to win to qualify.
Can any of the 7 win the Xfinity500 and clinch the spot automatically though?
Let’s have a look, and bring you some Nascar picks in the process.
The Xfinity 500 from Martinsville is the final race of the regular Nascar season.
After this race four of the eight drivers will be eliminated from the Nascar Cup Series Championship, so it promises to be an exciting day, no matter what the outcome of the race.
Despite being a +1000 outsider to win the Cup Series, Martin Truex Jr goes into the Xfinity 500 as the betting favorite to win the race.
The best Vegas sportsbooks have Truex Jr at +350 to win at Martinsville and clinch a place in the final four.
In his five races for Joe Gibbs Racing on this circuit, Martin Truex Jr has won here three times. On the other two occasions, he finished 22nd and 8th. He never started from position 1 in any of those races.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has already won at Martinsville this season, having won the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 back in April 2021.
Back then, Truex Jr’s closest rival was Denny Hamlin, whom he passed on lap 485 on what is one of the schedule’s shortest circuits.
At the time, the win was Truex Jr’s fifth victory on a short circuit in his previous 11 races. Showing that the Joe Gibbs Racing car seems to suit the shorter circuits.
Hence why the above two make up one and three in the betting this weekend!
For this race I’m looking for some better value though.
All the stats point towards a win for one of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, and although Truex Jr has the track record here, I’m going to go for his teammate, Denny Hamlin to win this week.
Hamlin is +600 to win, and he is my Nascar betting pick for the Xfinity 500 on Sunday.
The battle to see which driver wins may well be a fascinating one, but it also makes the Nascar odds for the Race Winning Team interesting as well.
Team Penske has nothing to lose, and everything to gain.
All three of their drivers sit outside of the top 4, and only one of them can get in on points. So will they throw caution to the wind on Sunday and go all out to get one of their guys across the line first?
With Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin on the team, Joe Gibbs Racing was always going to be the betting favorites in this market.
If Team Penske were better odds, I would be tempted to go for them to win here, but at the best price of just +260 with Bovada, I think I’m going to leave it.
For my final pick in this race this weekend I’m looking at the Race Lines, and a Top 5 finish.
Yes, Kyle Busch hasn’t had a great time of it at Martinsville in his last four races, but take a look at his record before that.
Up to and including March 2019, he recorded eight top 5 finishes in a row on this circuit.
So far this season he has 13 top 5 finishes, with only three drivers with a better record. They are as you would expect, Larson, Elliott, and Hamlin.
At odds of +100, I’m taking Kyle Busch to finish in the top 5 and that’s my final Nascar pick for the Xfinity 500.
