Home » News » Verstappen odds on favorite again, so where is the Italian GP value?
Verstappen odds on favorite again, so where is the Italian GP value?
Updated September 7, 2022
The European section of the 2022 Formula 1 season ends this Sunday with race 16 of the season from Monza. Max Verstappen has been unstoppable this season, so we look and see if he can continue his dominance with our 2022 Italian Grand Prix picks.
The short answer to that line in the opening paragraph is probably no; no one can stop Max Verstappen.
In his home Grand Prix last Sunday, Verstappen stormed to victory at the CM.com Circuit Zandvoort in front of his adoring fans. That win was his tenth this season, meaning he has now won two-thirds of the 15 races that have taken part to date.
The win also saw the Dutchman extend his lead at the top of the driver’s championship to 109 points, with his odds of winning the 2022 Drivers World Championship now -10000 with the best Formula 1 betting sites.
Elsewhere, in the betting to win the world championship, Charles Leclerc is +2500 second favorite, with the Mercedes duo of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, both at +20000.
In the championship, Verstappen has 301 points. Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez have 201, with George Russel next on 188 points. Carlos Sainz Jr in fifth place with 175 points.
Seven times world champion Lewis Hamilton is next in the betting. The winless Mercedes driver (as is George Russel) has just 158 points in a disappointing season so far.
2022 Italian Grand Prix; All You Need To Know
It’s another Sunday morning breakfast race for us guys on Eastern Time (2 pm local time). The race is from Italy this weekend and is at the legendary Monza circuit. This is also the last race of the month, with the next race in Singapore on October 2nd. This was after the 2022 Russian Grand Prix was canceled.
What; 2022 Italian F1 Grand Prix
Where; Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Monza MB, Italy
When; Sunday, September 11th, 2022
Time; 9 am ET
The race is 53 laps of the famous Italian circuit, with a race distance of 190 miles. The defending champion is McLaren’s Daniel Ricciardo, who took advantage of a spectacular crash between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton – which put both drivers out of the race – to take his only chequered flag of the 2021 F1 season.
Who Is the Favorite to win the 2022 Italian Grand Prix?
Groundhog day; Max Verstappen is the betting favorite to win the 2022 Italian Grand Prix at Monza. Is there any shock there? Of course, there isn’t.
The problem is that Verstappen has been too dominant, so his odds have shortened in every race. This week he is just -275. Verstappen is at odds of just -350 to finish on the podium. With very little in price between the two bets, it’s as if the best Vegas odds makers are saying if the Dutchman gets round the circuit, he wins.
The 2022 Italian Grand Prix winner betting is below
In all honesty, it seems pretty pointless to bet against Max Verstappen, and it’s difficult to bet on him due to the short odds he now is. Verstappen is just -275 to win the 2022 Italian Grand Prix. At those odds, is he good value? Not for me!
So, where do we go to find a worthwhile bet? We got the George Russell call right at the weekend, and I think Mercedes could be the team to follow again this weekend.
Lewis Hamilton To Win +900
Now, like with the other two picks last weekend, do not put much on this pick!! Verstappen is probably going to win. We’re only betting with small dimes on Hamilton in the hope he can upset Verstappen. Or, to put it another way, on the slight chance that Verstappen doesn’t finish the race!
Mercedes seems to be on an upward curve, and Ferreri looks on a downward spiral. This was shown again last week with George Russell beating Leclerc to second place.
If Verstappen fails to make it to the finish line for some reason, then at +900 third favorite, Lewis Hamilton looks a better value bet to me than the error-prone Leclerc.
I can already see a flaw in this bet. For both picks to win, we need two Mercedes in the top 3, with Lewis Hamilton in the top spot on the podium. But we’re treating the Hamilton win bet in a very speculative manner. If Hamilton fails to win, we’ve still got Russell in the top 3 as our cover bet.
All four of Verstappen (-350), Leclerc (-160), Hamilton (-138), and Perez (-120) are odds on for a podium finish, making Russell at +137 the value pick. Even at slightly shorter odds than last Sunday, I’m still taking George Russell to finish in the top 3 as my second Italian Grand Prix betting pick.
Dean has a strong affinity for the English Premier League and cricket, but his extensive understanding of sports allows him to discuss a wide range of athletic topics. Previously, Dean has explored the world to attend events such as the FIFA World Cup and Ashes cricket matches, but currently, he prefers to enjoy sports from the coziness of his home.