Recent Super Bowls Have Been High-Scoring Games
There are endless betting options offered on Super Bowl Sunday, but this wager is one of the easiest to understand and play.
The Over/Under, or “Total” as it’s also called, forces the gambler to answer one question: Will the championship be a high-scoring game or will points come at a premium. The line for Super Bowl LII, to be played Sunday, Feb. 4 indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, is set at 48.5 points (odds provided by bovada.lv). It may not be vacation weather outside, but the elements will be perfect inside the dome.
If you think the final score between the New England Patriots (15-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) will total 49 points or more, you bet the over. If you believe these two defenses will limit scoring to 48 points or less, you take the under.
It’s difficult to be overly confident in a selection for this bet since these two teams have not played each other all year. The AFC champions are 3-1 against NFC opponents this season, but they only played all four teams from the NFC South. The one loss was at home in Week 4 to Carolina.
The NFC champions are 3-1 against AFC opponents this season, meeting all four teams from the AFC West. Their loss came on the road in Week 2 at Kansas City.
Oddsmakers seem to have the over/under line pegged for both New England and Philadelphia this season. The Patriots went over seven times and under nine. The Eagles were 8-8.
Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick have been together for seven Super Bowls. Here’s how the Patriots fared in each of them, with over/under results:
| Super Bowl # | Year | ATS Result | Score | Over/under Result |
| SB LII | 2017 | NE (-3) over Atlanta | 34-28 | Over/under 57 (Over) |
| SB XLIV | 2015 | NE (pick) over Seattle | 28-24 | Over/under 47.5 (Over) |
| SB XLVI | 2012 | New York Giants over NE (-2.5) | 21-17 | Over/under 53 (Under) |
| SB XXXIX | 2008 | New York Giants over NE (-12) | 17-14 | Over/under 55 (Under) |
| SB XXXIX | 2005 | NE (-7) over Philadelphia | 24-21 | Over/under 46.5 (Under) |
| SB XXXVIII | 2004 | NE (-7) over Carolina | 32-29 | Over/under 37.5 (Over) |
| SB XXXVI | 2002 | NE (+14) over St. Louis | 20-17 | Over/under 53 (Under) |
One stat that was consistent for both teams is the fact they can score points with any other team in the league. The Patriots and Eagles both averaged 28.6 points per game. Only the NFC’s Los Angeles Rams had a higher average at 29.9. New England and Philadelphia were also tied for the league lead with the highest point differential at +162.
Both conference champions played indoors once this year. New England won at New Orleans and scored 36 points. Philadelphia won at Dallas and scored 37.
When it comes to the Super Bowl, the over has won in four of the last five championships and five of the last seven. The over holds the overall all-time lead 26-24. There was no total betting line for Super Bowl I.
These two teams were the No. 1 seeds in their conferences. Brady and company will score their share of points. They were only held under 20 once this season. The Eagles should be able to move the ball against the 29th-ranked defense in the NFL. They were held under 20 twice this year, but scored 30 or more nine times.
VGB’s pick — Over (48.5)
