Mid-week afternoon games are what the 2023 MLB season banks on. With the Philadelphia Phillies aiming to get back to .500, they face a Marlins team trying to find their identity. Philadelphia goes for another home win and has one of their best pitchers on the mound. In this article, we cook up Phillies vs Marlins Picks for this late afternoon tilt, played in “The City Of Brotherly Love.” Which team will come out on top?
Let’s see if the Phillies can get back into that postseason form of last season.
This might be tight at first, but the Philadelphia Phillies are the favorites to win the series finale. That’s because they get Zack Wheeler on the mound at home. The right-hander keeps throwing hard and has only yielded one home run in nearly ten innings. Wheeler giving up hits at his current rate (11.2 per 9 IP) has been unusual given his previous two seasons in Philadelphia (7.4 and 7.1, respectively).
Since this game is at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, the Phillies and Wheeler should have a considerable upper hand. Wheeler went 6-3 last season at home with a 1.85 ERA. He gave up only five home runs in 78 innings and averaged six innings per start. The Phillies snuck into the playoffs last year, then went on a run. Expectations are still very elevated in the MLB Vegas Odds for the Phillies, and for good reason.
Now, Miami counters with Edward Cabrera. Last year, Cabrera started 14 games, and the young pitcher excelled. With higher status in the pitching pecking order, the Dominican hurler figured to do as well or almost as well. These first two starts have seen the almost 25-year-old’s wild side. He leads the league early on in walks with a whopping 13. That number figures to come down, but how long does that take?
So, the top-ranked sportsbooks, which include the vaunted BetOnline Sportsbook review, the Marlins are +166 on Wednesday, which is tempting. Philadelphia is a more appetizing -153 on Bovada, Again, the Phillies were not an early-season team last year, they got going in September. However, this is a Marlins team that Philadelphia should be able to handle in the Phillies vs Marlins picks.
So, the Phillies vs Marlins picks favors a Philadelphia win on Wednesday. As mentioned above, the Marlins are almost lovable and inevitable at losing games. The last four full seasons saw Miami lose 93 or more games. Miami last went over .500 in 2009. Now, that is a long time, even for the Marlins. Few MLB projections held hope for Miami to break that string in 2023. Even 70-75 wins were going to be a struggle.
Now, Rob Thompson knew the honeymoon period might end quickly. Consider how close Philadelphia was to winning the World Series over Houston last year. It was tragic how the Phillies ran out of gas, yet a testament to Philadelphia’s potential. Thompson saw his team give up 5.5 runs a game, more than a full run greater than last season.
Alright, Philadelphia figures to eventually bash the ball, but that may not be how this goes early on. Again, it depends on if Cabrera calms down. If the Miami pitcher gets wild again, Philadelphia might unload on the pitcher, and the Miami bullpen has made more mistakes than usual in the early going. The Phillies tend to take advantage of these things, especially at home.
Shopping around on the books reveals the Phillies may have wiggle room on Wednesday. Act quickly and act before lunchtime. Consequently, the idea that Philadelphia stays around -180 to -185 on the moneyline could become a long shot. This is because of the weather and, yes, the wind blowing out late Wednesday afternoon.
Okay, what about the Runline or Over for Wednesday? As the numbers roll in, Philadelphia averaged 4.6 runs a game last year and 5.2 under Thompson. Until the Marlins show a bit more offensive punch, the run line carries some compelling points on Wednesday afternoon in the Phillies vs Marlins picks.
One of the big problems for Miami is how they often compound their woes offensively and defensively. Too often, the Marlins seem never to have their phases working at the same time. Partly, that is why Miami struggles to reach .500. On the road, Miami stopped winning in the second half, which fueled them being 19 games under .500 after the All-Star Break in 2022.
Philadelphia fires off with too much offensive potential at home. Furthermore, Miami may also need to score more runs with who is on the mound. The Marlins attempting to stay with the Phillies offensively may be futile, but it could lead to the over-connecting. Yes, it is that over which may have more attractive value. Even at -120, this offers a more viable alternative than the moneyline.
Lastly, MLB Betting Sites feed more info. Even with Bryce Harper on the IL, Philly’s offense has the potential to hold up their end. Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and J.T. Realmuto match up well here. A small wager on an anytime home run here could help as game time approaches. Good luck with the Phillies vs Marlins picks, and do not forget about more of those props.
