In the biggest and most perplexing way, it’s hard to believe that legal sports betting is something we have not seen in California. Lawmakers, tribes, and people err lobbyists have been working hard on this, but yet it finds a way not to happen. However, it’s important to note that a few loopholes are out there for state residents and once again, no one is sure how to combat them.
This is what the California bettors have been praying for. It wasn’t long ago that online betting sites were hopeful for a 2026 or 2027 start date. Now, that has been ruled out. Tribal leaders are focused on 2028 but again with so many different factions in California, the problem is trying to appease enough entities to get anything approved err passed. Now, the chances of this occurring are still less than 50-50 at this time.
In order for fantasy to become reality, the California tribes need to turn that good talking game into an even better action game. It is no secret that big players like Victor Rocha want to see sports betting in California. The problem becomes in the terms and fine print. Rocha and the tribes desire things to be done their way. That creates problems with voters, lawmakers, and other lobbyists alike.
It is not like most of Rocha’s ideas and points are off-base. Again, California is like threading a needle that is the size of a small pinhole. No one likes to say this but the truth is the truth. Legalities and reality dictate a landscape that is plagued with workarounds that some in the business seem content with.
California bettors see the loophole and see red. Do you blame them? The level of betting in the state runs the gamut of sports in a professional sense. If betting was fully legal, think of the money that could be made. California probably could get away with taxing at a higher rate and bettors would not care. Naturally, the World Cup betting sites are something Californians would welcome with open arms.
The first big loophole is that prediction markets have gotten into California. However, this is not in the most conventional way. Poetically, bettors can make bets on the political climate err predictive outcome in the state. One questions what kind of market is there for this. Just examining the race for Governor and the dollars add up quick. As of April 3rd, $13 million in wagers were made on Kalshi and Polymarket alone.
As for other action, there are bets to be made on predictions like the wealth tax for example. Add in the standard which party takes over the state legislature as well. Lawmakers are too worried over dark money influencing elections and other nefarious possibilities. Unfortunately, who suffers the most? The bettors do as predictive markets are not regulated in the state very much, if at all.
When it comes to the betting march in California, the tribes and lawmakers are on thin ice. For a state that is losing revenue at a mind-boggling pace, any positive could be a victory. Again, the money wagered on politics is a stark indication of what the people want and when.
If anyone needs a reason why the time is now, it is this. Well, California again missed out on a big sports betting opportunity with the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Approximately $3.3 billion or so gets wagered on “March Madness” and NCAA Basketball online betting takes the top step from mid-March into April. However, with no legal options, Californians had to go to Vegas or even Arizona to place wagers.
Had legal sports betting been an option, people this year could have bet on the World Cup, UEFA Champions League, and more. Politics is hardly the only loophole being exploited by prediction markets. This is like a fishing expedition for sports predictions and more.
Unfortunately, the state passes the buck on to the federal arm as far as blame. While attempting to appease too many groups, California continues to hurt the segment that merely wants to bet with regulated safeguards in place. As recently as last November, a majority of residents wanted sports betting in California. The problem was no cohesive option (referendum) in place.
Yes, California remains behind the ball to restrict prediction markets. Several states have started fighting Kalshi. This ranges from criminal charges to suing in court with results – some good and a few bad. California tribes sued for remedy and a state appeals court will hear that case later this month.
The problem is the politics. California Attorney General Rob Bonta still fundamentally believe daily fantasy sports are illegal. He equates it to illegal sports betting which tribes do as well. Again, with so many cooks in the kitchen, it may be why there are no legal pathways in the state.
Horse racing is legal but again the real moneymakers lie in other sports. California bettors just want an option they can get behind. Offering several options seems to muddy the waters more than anything else. Combine that with a lawmaking branch more interested in keeping things status quo and one has a recipe for the same old same old.
With the 2028 Summer Olympics coming slowly into view, the race is on to get a legal and regulated way to bet to the people. The clock is ticking!
